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That might indeed do something. If people overall really care a lot about holding 10 year government bonds rather than overnight bonds, there could be small differences in interest rates. There are other theorems that say no effect at all, but that needs a few more assumptions. But an argument that ignores the fact that we are holding just as many reserves as we gave up government bonds is false.
Even there I have overstated. The treasury sold more bonds than the Fed bought. Does the Treasury's choice of what kind of bonds to sell us really have a huge impact on interest rates? Was the recession largely due to the Treasury's fault in selling us the wrong length bonds, and good thing the Fed was there to undo it?
Does this actually not so large rearrangement of the maturity structure of a given amount of government debt in private hands really spark massive bubbles and stimulus and so on?
Well, per your question, it's possible. But less likely when you realize it's just a rearrangement not a change in the overall amount. Thanks for the clarification—it Is very helpful to know I was not just missing some obvious point.
Anyway it certainly seems as though adjusting the available aggregate duration, buying mortgage pass throughs, or even as in Europe buying credits is more than just trading a 20 for two 5s and a This is largely excellent, and as someone who works at DB, of particular professional relevance.
Credit spreads and I believe, implicitly, the equity risk premium are time varying and correlated to the level of interest rates. To adjust your example: I work in debt capital markets, helping banks issue term bonds.
For over five years I helped banks issue in Japan. As JGBs approached zero, the credo spreads banks paid fell from the 30s to a handful of basis points I asked Veronesi this question a couple of years ago when at Booth, particularly because my markets experience led me to think their was a flaw in the simple representation of the CapM.
He agreed, but pointed me in your direction as the expert on time varying risk premia My larger point is that, to the degree Fed action substantially artificially changes the level of Rates, they absolutely change risk premia, and to the degree that there is stickiness in investor return targets, this will change their purchase decisions by necessity.
I think I may have provided this link while catching up on your blog last year, but here it is again - it supports your view and seems relevant. Keep it short, polite, and on topic. Thanks to a few abusers I am now moderating comments. I welcome thoughtful disagreement.
I will block comments with insulting or abusive language. I'm also blocking totally inane comments. Try to make some sense. I am much more likely to allow critical comments if you have the honesty and courage to use your real name. Saturday, February 24, Slok on QE, and a great paper. This was also the conclusion of the discussion, where several of the FOMC members present actively participated.
Nobody in academia or at the Fed is able to show if QE, forward guidance, and negative interest rates are helpful or harmful policies. Despite this, everyone agreed yesterday that next time we have a recession, we will just do the same again. And if it did work, then removing it will have no consequences? There is a big intellectual inconsistency here. Investors, on the other hand, have a different view. Almost all clients I discuss this topic with believe that QE lowered long rates, inflated stock prices, and narrowed credit spreads.
Because when the Fed and ECB buy government bonds, then the sellers of those government bonds take the cash they get and spend it on buying higher-yielding assets such as IG credit and dividend-paying equities.
In other words, central bank policies lowered risk premia in financial markets, including in credit and equities. As QE, forward guidance, and negative interest rates come to an end, risk premia, including the term premium, should normalize and move back up again. And this process starts with the risk-free rate, i. Treasury yields moving higher, which is what we are observing at the moment.
I'm interested by the latter tension: Industry and media commenters are deeply convinced that the zero interest rate and QE period had massive effects on financial markets, in particular lowering risk premiums and inflating price bubbles. I'm deep in the academic view.
Industry analysis is very insightful about individual traders and investors and the mechanics of markets but forgets about adding up constraints and equilibrium which are the bread and butter of academia. You personally may sell a bond and put the money in to stocks. But someone else has to sell you that stock and hold the reserves. So there is no relationship at all in basic economics between the level of interest rates and the risk premium, or between the maturity structure of outstanding government debt reserves are just overnight government debt and the risk premium.
That one cannot see any movement at all in 10 year rates or inflation with QE is also noteworthy. But us academics need to listen as well as to lecture. Often industry people know something we don't. So I find this striking difference interesting. Though I haven't changed my mind yet. Most previous studies have found that quantitative easing QE lowered long term yields, with a rough consensus that LSAP purchases reduced yields on year Treasuries by about basis points.
We argue that the consensus overstates the effect of LSAPs on year yields We find that Fed actions and announcements were not a dominant determinant of year yields and that whatever the initial impact of some Fed actions or announcements, the effects tended not to persist.
Most of the pro-QE evidence was how yields moved on specific QE announcements. We all know there is price pressure, but it usually lasts only a few hours or days.
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